The chokepoints

Each layer of the supply chain has its own physics, its own moat, and its own catalyst calendar. Pick a strait.

HBM & memory bandwidth

Every accelerator is bandwidth-starved; high-bandwidth memory comes from three companies and is sold out years ahead.

MU · 000660.KS · SSNLF · CAMT · ONTO · FORM · BESIY

The GPU shortage has repeatedly been a packaging shortage: 2.5D/3D interposer and hybrid-bonding capacity, not wafer starts, sets accelerator output.

TSM · AMKR · ASX · BESIY · ONTO · CAMT

Leading-edge logic and DRAM both route through one EUV toolmaker — and the single-source optics and laser chain inside it.

ASML · ZEISSSMT · TRUMPF · KLAC · LRCX · AMAT

Every frontier accelerator is fabbed by one company, mostly in one geography; the alternatives are years behind.

TSM · ASML · INTC · ZEISSSMT · SSNLF · SHECY

Datacenter interconnect queues and transformer lead times are measured in years; gigawatts are the new wafer starts.

CEG · VST · TLN · GEV · ETN · PWR · HUBB · CLF

Rack densities past 100 kW make direct-liquid cooling mandatory — and the cold-plate, CDU and rear-door supply chain is thin.

VRT · MOD · NVT · ECL · SBGSY · COOLIT · BOYD

Scaling clusters beyond a rack is an optics problem: 800G/1.6T transceivers, co-packaged optics, and the lasers and DSPs inside them.

COHR · LITE · FN · MRVL · CRDO · AAOI · ANET