computebottlenecks

Catalyst calendar

The repricing schedule is mostly public if you actually look at it.

AllI · HBM & memory bandwidthII · Advanced packaging & CoWoSIII · Lithography & EUV opticsIV · Leading-edge foundryV · Power, grid & generationVI · Liquid cooling & thermalVII · Optical interconnect & networkingVIII · Substrates, resist & wafer materialsIX · Accelerators & the capex layerX · Private giants & exposure vehicles

July 2026

  • 28mediumEarningsGOOGLAlphabet Q2 2026 earningsSets the next capex guide and Google Cloud/TPU trajectory — the cleanest read on how fast a hyperscaler is internalizing the accelerator choke away from merchant GPUs.
  • 28mediumEarningsMSFTMicrosoft FY2026 Q4 earnings (after close)Updates the OpenAI equity-method mark and revenue-share-cap commentary, the largest disclosed listed window into OpenAI's economics.
  • 29mediumEarningsMODModine Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings (estimated late July 2026)First print after the $4B Airedale capacity agreement; tests whether contracted data-center/CDU demand is converting to revenue and updates the path to >$2B by FY2028.
  • 29mediumEarnings000660.KSSK hynix Q2 2026 resultsTests whether the 72%-operating-margin, sold-out-for-three-years HBM regime holds as HBM4 volume ramps and Samsung returns to the allocation table.
  • 30mediumEarningsKLACKLA Q4 FY2026 resultsKLA's process-control bookings confirm whether rising AI-chip complexity is lifting metrology/inspection intensity per wafer, the adjacent near-monopoly to lithography.
  • 30mediumEarningsPWRQuanta Services Q2 2026 resultsTests whether the record $48.5B backlog is translating into accelerating electric-power and data-center connection revenue, the EPC choke on grid build-out.
  • 30mediumEarningsENTGEntegris Q2 2026 results (guided sales $815-845M)Entegris is the only clean US large-cap in the chokepoint; its guided Q2 2026 sales of $815-845M and the read on CMP consumables, liquid filtration and selective-etch wins at the 2nm node are the cleanest listed proxy for advanced-node materials demand. Date estimated from the late-July cadence of prior quarters.

August 2026

  • 04mediumEarningsAMDAMD Q2 2026 earningsFirst print to test the MI450/Helios ramp narrative and disclosed data-center revenue against the OpenAI and Meta gigawatt commitments that underpin the bull case.
  • 04mediumEarningsAJNMYAjinomoto Q1 FY2026 results (ABF film read)Ajinomoto's quarterly print is the only window into the ABF film near-monopoly: pricing, mix and the >50% operating margin that is now ~20% of group profit despite ABF being ~6% of revenue. The prior-year Q1 was reported August 4, 2025, so an early-August 2026 cadence is expected; date estimated from that pattern.
  • 05mediumEarningsVRTVertiv Q2 2026 earningsUpdates backlog and liquid-cooling commentary for the largest listed thermal vendor; Vertiv frames liquid cooling growing from ~15% to ~30% of the thermal market by 2027, so order/backlog trajectory is the key tell.
  • 05mediumEarningsETNEaton Q2 2026 resultsWatch whether the ~240% data-center order growth and 48% electrical backlog build sustain, confirming the distribution-equipment layer as a durable chokepoint rather than a pull-forward.
  • 07mediumEarningsSFTBYSoftBank Group Q1 FY2026 results (quarter ended June 2026)Marks SoftBank's ~11% OpenAI stake and Stargate funding posture, the cleanest non-US listed read on OpenAI exposure and AI-buildout leverage.
  • 13mediumEarningsAMATApplied Materials fiscal Q3 2026 resultsAMAT's deposition/etch demand split tests how much of the AI 'giga-cycle' narrative is leading-edge logic and HBM packaging versus mature-node cyclicality.
  • 13mediumEarningsCOHRCoherent Q4 FY2026 earningsThe cleanest read on whether InP laser capacity — the binding constraint on 1.6T module output — is still gating datacenter revenue or has begun to loosen.
  • 18mediumEarningsLITELumentum Q4 FY2026 earningsPrices the 200G-per-lane EML ramp and the early use of NVIDIA's $2B capital, the second pillar of the laser-layer choke.
  • 20mediumEarningsMRVLMarvell Q2 FY2027 earningsThe quarterly read on optical-DSP demand (~65% share) and whether the 800G-to-1.6T scale-out optics inflection is sustaining data-center growth.
  • 24mediumEarningsFNFabrinet Q4 FY2026 earningsThe purest manufacturing-side signal on the 1.6T transceiver ramp, given Fabrinet's 100% share of the Blackwell 1.6T module build and laser/ASIC supply constraints management has flagged.
  • 26mediumEarningsNVDANVIDIA Q2 FY2027 earningsThe sector's master demand signal: data-center and networking growth and Vera Rubin commentary set expectations for every downstream chokepoint that NVDA's volume feeds.
  • 23lowConferenceHot Chips 2026 (Stanford, Aug 23-25)Accelerator and memory-vendor sessions typically detail HBM4E/HBM5 roadmaps and packaging choices (microbump vs hybrid bonding) that frame the next qualification race and the equipment layer's repricing.

September 2026

  • 03mediumEarningsAVGOBroadcom Q3 FY2026 earningsTests the guided ~$16B AI quarter and any new XPU customer disclosure — the key gauge of how fast custom ASICs are taking accelerator share from merchant GPUs.
  • 30mediumProgramECLExpected close of Ecolab's ~$4.75B CoolIT acquisition (Q3 2026)Closing converts the cleanest direct-to-chip cold-plate/CDU pure-play (~$550M NTM sales) into listed exposure via Ecolab, subject to regulatory approval.
  • 30mediumProgramOPENAIOpenAI IPO listing window opens (Q4 2026 target)OpenAI confidentially filed its S-1 around June 8, 2026 but has explicitly not committed to timing. A listing — whenever it lands — would be the largest tech IPO ever and reprice every private-AI exposure wrapper. The date here is a speculative placeholder, not a confirmed event.

October 2026

  • 01mediumProgramANTHROPICAnthropic IPO pricing window (later-2026 target after June 1 S-1)Anthropic filed confidentially around June 1, 2026; trade-press expectation is a later-2026 listing, but no date is set. Pricing would mark the second mega-cap AI pure-play into public markets. The date here is a speculative placeholder.
  • 12lowConferenceOCP Global Summit 2026 (Oct 12–15, San Jose)Sets the open-standard reference architectures (rack power/cooling, CDU and manifold specs) that merchant liquid-cooling vendors design against; design-win and roadmap signals surface here.
  • 13lowConferenceSEMICON West 2026 (Moscone Center, San Francisco, Oct 13-15)The packaging/assembly toolmakers (Besi, Onto, Camtek) showcase next-gen hybrid-bonding and panel-level capacity and roadmap shifts that determine which vendor wins each transition.
  • 13lowConferenceSEMICON West 2026 (San Francisco, Oct 13-15)The premier WFE trade show where High-NA EUV adoption, advanced-packaging roadmaps and export-control posture across the litho/deposition/metrology stack are set for the next cycle.
  • 13lowConferenceSEMICON West 2026 (Moscone Center, San Francisco, Oct 13-15)SEMICON West is the materials/equipment industry's main venue; substrate, photoresist (incl. EUV/High-NA), wafer and CMP/filtration suppliers (Fujifilm, Entegris, Merck/EMD) use it to signal capacity, qualification wins and AI-driven demand. It is a recurring data point for the entire substrates/materials layer.

December 2026

  • 31mediumProgramINTCIntel 14A external-customer decision window opensIntel guided that 14A external-customer decisions arrive in H2 2026-H1 2027; a named volume customer would be the binary proof that a second leading-edge foundry source exists at all.

March 2027

  • 31mediumProgramIBIDFIbiden Gama Plant / Ono Cell 8 AI-substrate ramp through FY2027Ibiden's ~¥500B ($3.3B) FY2026-2028 high-performance IC-substrate program (board-approved Feb 3, 2026) centers on the new Gama Plant (phase-1 ~¥220B, mass production from FY2027) and added capacity at the Ono Plant Cell 8, targeting roughly 2.5x high-performance capacity. The ramp is the cleanest read on whether AI-substrate demand is pulling through to real, qualified output; this is a program window, not a single confirmed event date.

Past

  • 2026-07-27Amkor Technology Q2 2026 earnings
  • 2026-07-23Samsung Electronics Q2 2026 results
  • 2026-07-23Intel Q2 2026 earnings
  • 2026-07-23Besi Q2 2026 results (order intake)
  • 2026-07-22GE Vernova Q2 2026 results
  • 2026-07-16TSMC Q2 2026 earnings
  • 2026-07-16ASML Q2 2026 earnings
  • 2026-07-16TSMC Q2 2026 earnings and conference call
  • 2026-07-15ASML Q2 2026 results
  • 2026-07-07PJM 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction closes
  • 2026-07-01Commerce Section 232 datacenter-semiconductor market update due to the President
  • 2026-07-01Commerce Section 232 semiconductor report to the President (data-center chip focus)
  • 2026-06-24Micron FQ3 2026 results and FQ4 guide (first full HBM4-ramp quarter)