Catalyst calendar
The repricing schedule is mostly public if you actually look at it.
AllI · Rare-earth magnets & motorsII · Batteries & energy densityIII · EO/IR & thermal sensorsIV · RF, EW & detectionV · Autonomy computeVI · Airframes & primesVII · Comms, datalinks & PNTVIII · NDAA-compliant supply chainIX · Interceptors & effectorsX · Private giants & exposure vehicles
August 2026
- 06EarningsMPMP Materials Q2 2026 earningsFirst full read on magnet-segment revenue ramp plus DoD price-floor (PPA) income, with updates on 10X construction and the heavy rare-earth separation circuit commissioning at Mountain Pass later in 2026.
September 2026
- 01ConferenceCommercial UAV Expo 2026 (Las Vegas, Sep 1-3)The main US commercial drone trade show, where NDAA-compliant motor and magnet sourcing announcements from component makers like Unusual Machines typically land ahead of the 2027 procurement cutoff.
November 2026
- 10PolicyExpiry of China's one-year suspension of its October 2025 rare-earth export controlsIf Beijing lets the suspension lapse, licensing snaps back on Dy/Tb-bearing NdFeB magnets and extraterritorial re-exports, instantly repricing the scarce ex-China magnet and heavy-RE capacity drones depend on.
January 2027
- 01PolicyNDAA §844/§854 ban on Chinese-melted or fabricated NdFeB/SmCo magnets in DoD systems takes effectDefense drone primes must certify magnets free of Chinese processing at every stage or face contract termination and False Claims Act liability, forcing demand onto the small pool of compliant capacity at MP, USAR and Vulcan.