Daily brief · 2026-07-01
The AI-equipment rebound ran a second day into quarter-end — FormFactor +10.9%, Credo +10.7%, Vertiv +9.1% — while the data-center-power complex kept giving back gains, Constellation −4.2% the laggard.
FormFactor (FORM) led the compute basket on Tuesday, up 10.9% to $159.93, extending Monday's violent snapback across the semicap and memory toolchain into a second session. There was no single-name catalyst; FORM rode the same tape that lifted the whole AI-equipment stack as the Nasdaq added 1.52% to 26,213.72 to close out the best quarter for US indexes since 2020. FormFactor sits on the HBM-memory chokepoint — its DRAM probe cards are the test gate every high-bandwidth-memory stack must pass before it ships to an accelerator — so it reprices directly with conviction that HBM wafer starts keep scaling. After Monday's semicap rout-reversal, Tuesday said the leading-edge and advanced-packaging buildout is still intact, and the probe-card names led again.
Constellation Energy (CEG) was the laggard, down 4.2% to $248.37, and the divergence is the session's tell. On the power-grid chokepoint, Constellation is the largest US nuclear operator and the cleanest proxy for the data-center-power premium — but on a risk-on, tech-led day capital rotated out of the power complex and back into chips. There was no fresh company-specific catalyst to date to Tuesday; the read is a rotation, not a repricing of the thesis. Talen (TLN −3.8%) and Vistra (VST −2.3%) fell alongside it, confirming the whole IPP-power group lagged even as the accelerators and their supply chain ripped.
The rebound radiated across nearly every compute chokepoint. Optical interconnect firmed hard — Credo (CRDO) +10.7% to $271.95, Marvell (MRVL) +7.3% to $297.89. Cooling and thermal led with Vertiv (VRT) +9.1% to $334.82, the GB200/GB300 liquid-cooling reference partner. Process control and packaging extended — KLA (KLAC) +8.4% to $301.71, Onto Innovation (ONTO) +7.7% to $378.45, ASE (ASX) +7.1% to $45.12 — and AMD (AMD) added 7.7% to $580.91 on the accelerators-capex node. The soft spots were geographic and power-bound: SK hynix's Seoul line (000660.KS) fell 3.4% in its own session, and the data-center-power names dragged.
The calendar turns dense and policy-heavy. Commerce's Section 232 data-center-semiconductor report to the President is due around July 1, and PJM's 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction closes July 7 — a direct read on the data-center power premium the Talen and Constellation names trade on. The earnings wave then opens with ASML on July 15 and TSMC on July 16, the first hard tests of whether leading-edge tool and foundry demand matches this week's optimism, followed by GE Vernova on July 22, KLA on July 30, AMD on August 4, and Vertiv on August 5.